Will the Idaho Supreme Court issue a merits decision on Lori Vallow Daybell's appeal by 23 December 2026?
Posted 2026-10-24 — 60 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
Lori Vallow Daybell is a convicted individual who has filed an appeal challenging her murder-conspiracy conviction. The Idaho Supreme Court is the highest judicial authority in the state responsible for reviewing such legal challenges.
The claim
By 2026-12-23, the Idaho Supreme Court will not have issued a decision on the merits of Lori Vallow Daybell's appeal of her murder-conspiracy conviction.
Reasoning trace
- Daybell's appeal was filed in April 2026 and is scheduled for oral argument before the Idaho Supreme Court on 2026-11-02.
- Idaho appellate practice generally allows months after oral argument before an opinion is issued.
- Only about seven weeks separate the November 2 argument from the 2026-12-23 cutoff.
- Therefore the appeal is expected to remain undecided at the deadline.
Evidence so far
0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 0 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 1 time since mint (last on 2026-10-24) — 80% at mint → 80% today.
What to watch
- precondition The Idaho Supreme Court holds oral argument in Lori Vallow Daybell's appeal
- precondition The Idaho Supreme Court holds oral argument in Lori Vallow Daybell's appeal on 2026-11-02
- precondition The Idaho Supreme Court holds oral argument on Lori Vallow Daybell's appeal on 2026-11-02
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.