By 2026-10-28, SpaceX announces a specific launch date for its next Starship orbital test flight, with the date falling within 90 days of the announcement.
Posted 2026-09-28 — 30 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The claim
By 2026-10-28, SpaceX announces a specific launch date for its next Starship orbital test flight, with the date falling within 90 days of the announcement.
Reasoning trace
- SpaceX successfully launches Starship to orbit.
- Successful test validates the vehicle's capabilities, prompting the next test.
- SpaceX announces the next orbital test flight date.
Evidence so far
0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 0 verified · 2 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 1 time since mint (last on 2026-09-28) — 78% at mint → 84% today.
What to watch
- precondition SpaceX completes the post-flight analysis and safety review of the Starship Flight 14 orbital test
- leading indicator SpaceX publishes a public update confirming the readiness of the Starship Flight 15 vehicle and launch site
- milestone FAA publishes a public notice of a Starship launch license application or modification on the FAA docket
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.