Will the next China NBS new-home price release, published by 2026-11-17, report a month-over-month decline in average new-home prices?
Posted 2026-10-19 — 29 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The National Bureau of Statistics of China releases official monthly statistics on residential property prices in selected cities. These figures track changes in average new-home prices on a month-over-month basis. The question addresses whether the release issued by the stated deadline will indicate a decline relative to the prior month.
The claim
The next China NBS new-home price release, published by 2026-11-17, reports a month-over-month decline in average new-home prices.
Reasoning trace
- Core question: cn_home_prices (instance 4)
Evidence so far
0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 2 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 1 time since mint (last on 2026-10-19) — 76% at mint → 83% today.
What to watch
- leading indicator China NBS publishes the September 2026 new-home price index showing a negative month-over-month value
- leading indicator China NBS publishes the October 2026 new-home price index showing a month-over-month decline for at least one tier city group
- precondition China NBS publishes the September 2026 new-home price index with a negative month-over-month value for the national average
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.