Will OpenAI complete the integration of its Codex coding agent into Google Cloud's marketplace by 25 December 2026?
Posted 2026-10-21 — 65 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
OpenAI is an artificial intelligence research organization that developed the Codex model for code generation. Google Cloud operates a marketplace for third-party software and services on its cloud platform. The question concerns whether the described integration will be finished by the given deadline.
The claim
OpenAI will complete the integration of its Codex coding agent into Google Cloud's marketplace by 25 December 2026.
Reasoning trace
- Upstream shock: Codex (z=5.3); OpenAI exposed via 'uses' edge
Evidence so far
8 confirming · 0 denying signals · 7 verified · 1 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 9 times since mint (last on 2026-10-24) — 81% at mint → 80% today.
What to watch
- leading indicator Google Cloud publishes a public announcement or documentation page listing OpenAI Codex as an available service in its marketplace
- milestone OpenAI's developer documentation or API reference is updated to include Google Cloud marketplace integration endpoints
- precondition OpenAI and Google Cloud announce a commercial partnership or API integration agreement for Codex
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.