By 2026-11-05, Alphabet's Q3 2026 earnings release reports a specific dollar figure for external TPU hardware revenue for Q3 2026.
Posted 2026-10-02 — 34 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The claim
By 2026-11-05, Alphabet's Q3 2026 earnings release reports a specific dollar figure for external TPU hardware revenue for Q3 2026.
Reasoning trace
- Base rate: companies that newly break out a product line's revenue in one quarterly report continue to disclose it in the next quarter ≈ 85%
- Alphabet first disclosed external TPU hardware sales in Q2 2026 and Piper Sandler's Oct 2 forecast of $104B by 2028 shows the metric is now externally tracked, so Alphabet has an incentive to keep reporting it in Q3.
Evidence so far
0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 1 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 1 time since mint (last on 2026-10-02) — 82% at mint → 82% today.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.