The International Energy Agency will, by 2026-10-22, publicly declare in an official statement that the current oil supply disruption constitutes a 'major supply disruption' under the International Energy Program.
Posted 2026-10-02 — 20 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The claim
The International Energy Agency will, by 2026-10-22, publicly declare in an official statement that the current oil supply disruption constitutes a 'major supply disruption' under the International Energy Program.
Reasoning trace
- Signpost: The International Energy Agency publicly declares in an official statement that the current oil supply disruption constitutes a 'major supply disruption' under the International Energy Program.
- The International Energy Agency activates the collective action mechanism and coordinates an emergency release of crude oil from member-country emergency stocks.
Evidence so far
13 confirming · 0 denying signals · 2 verified · 1 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 2 times since mint (last on 2026-10-03) — 60% at mint → 79% today.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.