The US Army will disclose the specific monetary value of the Other Transaction Agreement awarded to RTX for the PrSM Increment 4 program by October 14, 2026.
Posted 2026-09-30 — 14 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The claim
The US Army will disclose the specific monetary value of the Other Transaction Agreement awarded to RTX for the PrSM Increment 4 program by October 14, 2026.
Reasoning trace
- Standard Department of Defense transparency requirements for OTAs exceeding certain thresholds
- Investor demand for quantifying new defense revenue streams following the selection announcement
- Routine release of financial details accompanying the initial public announcement of award winners
Evidence so far
0 confirming · 1 denying signals · 0 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 1 time since mint (last on 2026-09-30) — 70% at mint → 79% today.
What to watch
- precondition The US Army publishes a public notice or press release announcing the selection of RTX as the awardee for the PrSM Increment 4 Other Transaction Agreement.
- leading indicator RTX issues an investor presentation or earnings call transcript referencing the PrSM Increment 4 award and providing financial details or revenue guidance.
- leading indicator The US Army publishes a public notice or press release announcing the specific monetary value of the PrSM Increment 4 Other Transaction Agreement awarded to RTX.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.