The next German IFO business climate release, published by 2026-10-25, prints at or above 90.
Posted 2026-10-01 — 24 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The claim
The next German IFO business climate release, published by 2026-10-25, prints at or above 90.
Reasoning trace
- Core question: de_ifo (instance 3)
Evidence so far
0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 1 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 1 time since mint (last on 2026-10-01) — 78% at mint → 84% today.
What to watch
- leading indicator The IFO Institute publishes the preliminary October 2026 business climate index on its website
- milestone The IFO Institute announces the specific date for the October 2026 business climate press conference
- precondition The IFO Institute publishes the initial October 2026 business climate index report without any accompanying notice of data revision or correction.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.