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Apple files a post-trial motion for judgment as a matter of law or a new trial in the U.S. district court by 2026-10-28.

probability 84% deadline 2026-10-28 (29d left) Regulation

Posted 2026-09-28 — 30 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.

The claim

Apple files a post-trial motion for judgment as a matter of law or a new trial in the U.S. district court by 2026-10-28.

Reasoning trace

  1. Jury verdict of $5.7 billion against Apple
  2. Apple's stated plan to appeal
  3. Apple files post-trial motion to challenge the verdict

Evidence so far

0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 1 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.

Probability history

Updated 1 time since mint (last on 2026-09-28) — 79% at mint → 84% today.

What to watch

  • precondition The U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California issues a formal order or notice setting a deadline for parties to file post-trial motions
  • leading indicator Apple's legal team publicly announces or confirms in a press statement its intent to file post-trial motions challenging the jury verdict
  • leading indicator Apple's legal team publicly announces or confirms the specific legal grounds for the post-trial motion (e.g., via a press release or court filing) prior to submission

The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].

Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.