Will Anthropic price its IPO and begin trading on a U.S. stock exchange by 2026-12-04?
Posted 2026-10-05 — 60 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
Anthropic is an artificial intelligence company that developed the Claude series of large language models. Companies may conduct an initial public offering to list shares on a public stock exchange. The question addresses the timing of any such listing for Anthropic.
The claim
Anthropic (the company behind Claude) will price its initial public offering and its shares will begin trading on a U.S. stock exchange by 2026-12-04.
Reasoning trace
- Anthropic's confidential S-1 has leaked, showing $4.6B revenue and an $84.5B SpaceX compute commitment, signaling an imminent public offering
- Anthropic is expected to file a public S-1 by 2026-10-30, starting the SEC review clock
- Strong investor demand for a major AI IPO leads Anthropic to complete its roadshow and set an offer price
- The offering prices and shares begin trading on a U.S. exchange by early December
Evidence so far
154 confirming · 0 denying signals · 6 verified · 4 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 51 times since mint (last on 2026-11-04) — 16% at mint → 76% today.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.