Will Laurent Nuñez issue at least one arrêté banning a demonstration in Paris between 2026-10-25 and 2026-12-17?
Posted 2026-10-18 — 60 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
Laurent Nuñez holds the position of Prefect of Police of Paris, the French official responsible for maintaining public order in the capital. In this role the Prefect may issue arrêtés, which are administrative orders that can prohibit public demonstrations. The question asks whether at least one such order will be promulgated during the stated interval.
The claim
Laurent Nuñez, as Prefect of Police of Paris, issues at least one arrêté banning a demonstration in Paris between 2026-10-25 and 2026-12-17.
Reasoning trace
- Nationwide cost-of-living and student protests continue after the 17 October riots
- Paris faces recurring risk of violence and looting
- Prefect of Police Laurent Nuñez uses his legal power to ban at least one planned demonstration
- The ban is announced in an arrêté before 17 December
Evidence so far
6 confirming · 0 denying signals · 5 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 13 times since mint (last on 2026-10-30) — 54% at mint → 84% today.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.