By 2026-10-28, the California Department of Financial Protection and Innovation will publish formal regulatory guidance or emergency rules to implement the memecoin ban and restitution provisions.
Posted 2026-09-28 — 30 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The claim
By 2026-10-28, the California Department of Financial Protection and Innovation will publish formal regulatory guidance or emergency rules to implement the memecoin ban and restitution provisions.
Reasoning trace
- Newsom signs memecoin ban law
- State regulator (DFPI) tasked with implementation
- DFPI publishes formal rules to enforce the ban
Evidence so far
0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 0 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 1 time since mint (last on 2026-09-28) — 78% at mint → 84% today.
What to watch
- milestone The California Department of Financial Protection and Innovation (DFPI) publishes a public notice of intent to initiate a rulemaking proceeding for the memecoin ban statute on its official website.
- milestone DFPI publishes a public notice of proposed rulemaking (NOPR) or draft guidance on memecoin classification
- milestone DFPI publishes a notice of proposed rulemaking (NPRM) or formal proposal for the memecoin ban regulations on the California Office of Administrative Law (OAL) website
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.