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Meta Platforms announces its fiscal Q4 2026 earnings report with total revenue exceeding $45 billion by 11 October 2026.

probability 84% deadline 2026-10-11 (12d left) Finance

Posted 2026-09-28 — 13 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.

The claim

Meta Platforms announces its fiscal Q4 2026 earnings report with total revenue exceeding $45 billion by 11 October 2026.

Reasoning trace

  1. Strong ad sales growth cited in recent reports
  2. Successful launch and adoption of the Muse AI agent
  3. Historical revenue trajectory supporting high-end guidance

Evidence so far

0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 2 verified · 2 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.

Probability history

Updated 1 time since mint (last on 2026-09-28) — 79% at mint → 84% today.

What to watch

  • leading indicator Meta Platforms announces a material partnership or integration for the Muse AI agent observed
  • milestone Meta Platforms publishes a Form 8-K with the Q4 2026 earnings press release on the SEC EDGAR database
  • leading indicator Meta Platforms' investor relations website displays the Q4 2026 earnings press release and financial statements

The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].

Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.