The Strait of Hormuz does NOT return to pre-crisis tanker transit volumes (10-day moving average of laden crude tankers back above 40) by 31 October 2026.
Posted 2026-09-25 — 36 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The claim
The Strait of Hormuz does NOT return to pre-crisis tanker transit volumes (10-day moving average of laden crude tankers back above 40) by 31 October 2026.
Reasoning trace
- Iran's 7-day offer requires US sanctions concessions
- Senate vote shows US political will to concede is weak
- Even a deal triggers 2-4 week insurance/reflagging lag
- Tanker owners remain risk-averse after Houthi attacks on Saudi assets
Evidence so far
46 confirming · 1 denying signals · 7 verified · 3 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 15 times since mint (last on 2026-10-01) — 22% at mint → 85% today.
What to watch
- leading indicator US Senate votes on Iran sanctions relief / nuclear deal framework and the vote outcome reflects weak political will for concessions (e.g., fails to pass, passes with narrow margin, or includes conditions that undermine negotiating position) observed
- precondition No binding Iran–US nuclear agreement or sanctions relief deal is publicly announced / signed by 2026-10-15 observed
- leading indicator The US and Iran announce a framework agreement or preliminary deal on nuclear terms and sanctions relief observed
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.