By 2026-10-30, the U.S. International Trade Commission will issue a final determination in the expedited sunset reviews of the antidumping duty orders on passenger vehicle and light truck tires from Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand, determining that revocation of the orders would be likely to lead to continuation or recurrence of material injury.
Posted 2026-09-30 — 30 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The claim
By 2026-10-30, the U.S. International Trade Commission will issue a final determination in the expedited sunset reviews of the antidumping duty orders on passenger vehicle and light truck tires from Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand, determining that revocation of the orders would be likely to lead to continuation or recurrence of material injury.
Reasoning trace
- Commerce published final results finding dumping likely
- ITC conducts expedited injury sunset review under statutory deadline
- ITC issues final determination continuing the AD orders
Evidence so far
1 confirming · 0 denying signals · 3 verified · 1 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 2 times since mint (last on 2026-10-01) — 79% at mint → 78% today.
What to watch
- precondition The U.S. Department of Commerce publishes final results of the sunset review finding that dumping is likely to continue or recur for the tire orders from Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand.
- milestone The U.S. International Trade Commission publishes a notice in the Federal Register announcing the initiation of the expedited sunset review for the specific tire orders.
- milestone The U.S. International Trade Commission publishes a notice in the Federal Register announcing the availability of the Final Determination for the expedited sunset review of antidumping duty orders on passenger vehicle and light truck tires from Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.