Will at least three Iran-linked incidents targeting US or allied sites outside Middle East be reported by 2026-12-31?
Posted 2026-09-28 — 94 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
Iran-linked security incidents include arrests, foiled plots, and attacks reported in international media. The United States and allied nations maintain military and diplomatic facilities in multiple regions. Such questions arise from ongoing monitoring of global security events involving these actors.
The claim
At least three additional Iran-linked or Iran-inspired security incidents (arrests, foiled plots, or attacks) targeting US or allied military/diplomatic sites outside the Middle East are reported by international media before 2026-12-31.
Reasoning trace
- Iran-linked networks activate abroad post-war escalation
- First RAF Fairford incident sets precedent
- Western intelligence services elevated threat monitoring detects additional plots
- Multiple incidents reported publicly
Evidence so far
127 confirming · 0 denying signals · 15 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 45 times since mint (last on 2026-11-06) — 51% at mint → 81% today.
What to watch
- leading indicator A Western intelligence agency (e.g., CIA, MI6, or BND) issues a public warning or advisory regarding specific threats to US or allied diplomatic/military sites in Europe or Asia. observed
- milestone Law enforcement agencies in a G7 or NATO country announce the arrest of an individual on charges of plotting an attack against a US or allied facility, with evidence linking the suspect to Iranian intelligence or proxies. observed
- leading indicator Western intelligence agencies (e.g., CIA, MI6, or Five Eyes partners) issue a public warning or declassified report identifying a specific, active Iranian plot targeting a US or allied site outside the Middle East. contradicted
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.