TSMC will report Q3 2026 revenue of at least NT$1.50 trillion in its 15 October 2026 earnings release.
Posted 2026-10-05 — 11 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The claim
TSMC will report Q3 2026 revenue of at least NT$1.50 trillion in its 15 October 2026 earnings release.
Reasoning trace
- Base rate: TSMC quarterly revenue records during AI-driven demand surges ≈ 65%
- August 2026 revenue rose 53.3% YoY to a record NT$514.81B, and the Q3 earnings report is scheduled for October 15; with July and September near that monthly level, Q3 total should exceed NT$1.50T absent a sharp sequential decline.
Evidence so far
0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 3 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 4 times since mint (last on 2026-10-10) — 67% at mint → 82% today.
What to watch
- leading indicator TSMC publishes its Q3 2026 monthly revenue figures for July, August, and September on its investor relations website observed
- milestone TSMC announces the specific date and time for its Q3 2026 earnings call in a public press release or investor notice
- leading indicator TSMC files its Q3 2026 Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.