The BLS state unemployment report for September 2026 shows that at least 25 states had an unemployment rate higher than in August 2026.
Posted 2026-10-02 — 18 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The claim
The BLS state unemployment report for September 2026 shows that at least 25 states had an unemployment rate higher than in August 2026.
Reasoning trace
- September jobs report shows national unemployment rose to 4.2%
- Labor market weakness is likely broad-based across states
- BLS state report shows at least 25 states with higher unemployment
Evidence so far
9 confirming · 0 denying signals · 0 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 2 times since mint (last on 2026-10-03) — 70% at mint → 80% today.
What to watch
- leading indicator BLS publishes the State and Area Employment and Unemployment Statistics report for August 2026
- precondition The BLS publishes the September 2026 state-level unemployment rate table (Table 1) on its website
- precondition The BLS publishes the State and Area Employment and Unemployment report for September 2026 on the BLS website
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.