Will every US bank with assets over $10 billion remain open by 10 December 2026?
Posted 2026-10-15 — 56 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The Federal Reserve supervises large banking institutions in the United States based on asset size thresholds. This forecast concerns the operational continuity of major financial entities within the US banking system.
The claim
Every US bank with assets above 10 billion dollars remains open through 2026-12-10.
Reasoning trace
- Core question: us_bank_failure (instance 2)
Evidence so far
0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 2 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 1 time since mint (last on 2026-10-15) — 85% at mint → 78% today.
What to watch
- leading indicator The FDIC or Federal Reserve publishes a public notice or press release announcing the seizure of a US bank with assets over $10 billion
- leading indicator The FDIC issues a public notice of receivership or a bankruptcy court accepts a Chapter 7 or 11 petition for a US bank with assets exceeding $10 billion
- leading indicator A US bank with assets over $10 billion publishes a formal announcement of voluntary closure or merger of record resulting in the cessation of its independent banking charter
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.