At least one European government (UK, Germany, France, or Poland) publicly announces expulsion of Russian diplomats or new sanctions targeting Russian intelligence services by 2026-11-15, following the RAF Fairford Iran-linked incident and disclosed Ponomarev/Kasparov plots.
Posted 2026-09-30 — 46 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The claim
At least one European government (UK, Germany, France, or Poland) publicly announces expulsion of Russian diplomats or new sanctions targeting Russian intelligence services by 2026-11-15, following the RAF Fairford Iran-linked incident and disclosed Ponomarev/Kasparov plots.
Reasoning trace
- MI5 and Spanish media publicly attribute plots to Russian state
- Political pressure builds for visible response
- Government announces expulsions or targeted sanctions
Evidence so far
0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 0 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 1 time since mint (last on 2026-09-30) — 78% at mint → 84% today.
What to watch
- leading indicator The UK Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office publishes a public statement or press release confirming the expulsion of specific Russian diplomats
- precondition The UK government publicly attributes the RAF Fairford incident or Ponomarev/Kasparov plots to Russian state intelligence
- leading indicator The German Federal Ministry for Foreign Affairs (Auswärtiges Amt) issues a public statement or holds a press conference announcing the expulsion of Russian diplomats or intelligence officers from Berlin
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.