Will the next China NBS CPI report by 10 November 2026 show year-over-year inflation at or above zero?
Posted 2026-10-16 — 25 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) publishes monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) data to measure changes in the price level of goods and services. This forecast concerns whether the upcoming release will indicate non-negative year-over-year inflation.
The claim
The next China NBS CPI release, published by 2026-11-10, reports year-over-year inflation at or above zero.
Reasoning trace
- Core question: cn_cpi_yoy (instance 3)
Evidence so far
0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 1 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 1 time since mint (last on 2026-10-16) — 83% at mint → 79% today.
What to watch
- milestone The NBS publishes the October 2026 CPI statistical bulletin on its official website
- milestone The National Bureau of Statistics of China publishes the preliminary October 2026 CPI data on its official website or via a press release.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.