Will zero major port or logistics strikes begin in the US or EU before 19 December 2026?
Posted 2026-10-24 — 56 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
Major ports and logistics hubs are critical nodes in global supply chains, where labor disputes can disrupt trade flows. This forecast concerns the potential onset of significant industrial actions within these sectors in the United States and the European Union.
The claim
Zero major port or logistics strikes begin in the US or EU before 2026-12-19.
Reasoning trace
- Core question: major_port_strike (instance 2)
Evidence so far
0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 0 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 1 time since mint (last on 2026-10-24) — 86% at mint → 77% today.
What to watch
- precondition The International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) or International Brotherhood of Teamsters (IBT) announces a ratified contract or public statement confirming the expiration of the current collective bargaining agreement has been resolved without a work stoppage.
- leading indicator The Federal Mediation and Conciliation Service (FMCS) publishes a public notice or press release indicating that mediation efforts between major U.S. port unions and employers have concluded successfully or that no formal strike notice has been received.
- leading indicator A major EU port workers' union issues a public notice of a strike ballot or formal warning of industrial action.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.