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Will US officials deport Wilber Rafael Garces Perez to Venezuela by 5 October 2026?

probability 79% deadline 2026-10-05 (13d left) Geopolitics

Posted 2026-09-2114 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.

Wilber Rafael Garces Perez is a Venezuelan national subject to US immigration enforcement. The question concerns the completion of his removal to Venezuela by the specified deadline.

The claim

Federal officials will complete the deportation of Wilber Rafael Garces Perez to Venezuela by 5 October 2026

Reasoning trace

  1. Federal custody already established
  2. DHS assertion of illegal status
  3. Lack of immediate legal barrier in signals

Evidence so far

0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 1 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.

Probability history

Updated 2 times since mint (last on 2026-09-22) — 82% at mint → 79% today.

The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].

Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.