Will China announce zero new rare-earth or critical-mineral export measures before 13 December 2026?
Posted 2026-10-18 — 56 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
China is a dominant global supplier of rare-earth elements and other critical minerals essential for modern technology and defense industries. Export controls on these materials are a significant tool in international trade and geopolitical strategy, often subject to monitoring by global markets and policymakers.
The claim
China announces zero new rare-earth or critical-mineral export measures before 2026-12-13.
Reasoning trace
- Core question: cn_rare_earth_controls (instance 2)
Evidence so far
2 confirming · 0 denying signals · 0 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 2 times since mint (last on 2026-10-19) — 63% at mint → 81% today.
What to watch
- precondition China's Ministry of Commerce publishes a public notice or draft regulation on its official website proposing new export quotas, licensing requirements, or control measures for rare-earth elements
- precondition The Ministry of Commerce publishes a new regulatory document in the MOFCOM gazette specifying changes to critical mineral export licensing
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.