Will the US or EU announce new sanctions on Iran before 1 January 2027?
Posted 2026-11-06 — 56 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The United States and the European Union frequently employ economic sanctions as a tool of foreign policy to influence state behavior. This forecast concerns the potential introduction of new restrictive measures targeting Iran by either jurisdiction prior to the specified deadline.
The claim
New US or EU sanctions on Iran are announced before 2027-01-01.
Reasoning trace
- Core question: iran_sanctions (instance 8)
Evidence so far
4 confirming · 0 denying signals · 2 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 5 times since mint (last on 2026-11-07) — 78% at mint → 83% today.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.