No formal ceasefire in the Israel-Gaza conflict is in effect on 2026-11-22.
Posted 2026-10-11 — 42 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The claim
No formal ceasefire in the Israel-Gaza conflict is in effect on 2026-11-22.
Reasoning trace
- Core question: israel_ceasefire_status (instance 3)
Evidence so far
5 confirming · 0 denying signals · 3 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 2 times since mint (last on 2026-10-12) — 67% at mint → 79% today.
What to watch
- precondition The United States State Department issues a public statement or press release announcing the signing or implementation of a formal Israel-Gaza ceasefire agreement
- precondition The Israeli government issues an official statement or Knesset resolution declaring the start of a formal ceasefire with Hamas
- precondition The Israeli government publicly rejects or fails to ratify the specific ceasefire terms proposed by mediators
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.