By 2026-10-12, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) will file an 8-K with the SEC disclosing a new Bitcoin purchase of at least 100 BTC.
Posted 2026-09-28 — 14 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The claim
By 2026-10-12, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) will file an 8-K with the SEC disclosing a new Bitcoin purchase of at least 100 BTC.
Reasoning trace
- Established cadence of weekly purchases by Strategy to grow its treasury
- Recent record-breaking purchase of 1,665 BTC suggests continued aggressive accumulation
- Total holdings are already near 4% of supply, incentivizing continued market presence
Evidence so far
2 confirming · 0 denying signals · 1 verified · 2 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 2 times since mint (last on 2026-09-29) — 80% at mint → 78% today.
What to watch
- leading indicator Strategy announces a new Bitcoin purchase of at least 100 BTC via its official X (Twitter) account or press release observed
- leading indicator Strategy's treasury page or weekly blog post displays a 'New Purchases' line item or delta of >=100 BTC. observed
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.