Will Iran's armed forces attack, seize or detain a commercial vessel near the Strait of Hormuz between 1 November and 30 November 2026?
Posted 2026-10-31 — 30 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman linking the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman. Iran's armed forces comprise both the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the regular navy. The question concerns potential incidents involving commercial shipping in that location during a defined interval.
The claim
Iran's armed forces (IRGC or regular navy) will attack, seize or forcibly detain at least one commercial vessel in or near the Strait of Hormuz between 1 November and 30 November 2026, as reported by major wire services.
Reasoning trace
- concreteness up in security (+0.16) + fear/physical_wellbeing dominant mood + confirmed Iranian Hormuz attacks and Iran leadership change
- finance ↔ geopolitics and energy ↔ market coupling amplify consequences
Evidence so far
13 confirming · 0 denying signals · 5 verified · 1 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 18 times since mint (last on 2026-11-05) — 57% at mint → 83% today.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.