Will Amazon announce a partnership or capex for Nvidia Cosmos 3 Edge or Vera Rubin Japan by 29 Oct 2026?
Posted 2026-08-15 — 75 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
Amazon is a major technology company and cloud service provider, while Nvidia develops artificial intelligence hardware and software. This forecast concerns potential commercial agreements or infrastructure investments between these two entities.
The claim
Amazon will not announce a new partnership, contract, or capital expenditure specifically tied to the Nvidia Cosmos 3 Edge or Vera Rubin Japan AI factory within the next 75 days.
Reasoning trace
- Upstream shock: Robotics (z=5.6); Amazon exposed via 'uses' edge
Evidence so far
1 confirming · 0 denying signals · 2 verified · 7 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 20 times since mint (last on 2026-10-09) — 99% at mint → 81% today.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.