Will the US Census Bureau's October 2026 retail sales report show a MoM change of at least +0.2%?
Posted 2026-09-22 — 39 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The US Census Bureau publishes advance estimates of monthly retail sales to track consumer spending trends. This metric is a key indicator of economic health and is closely monitored by investors and policymakers.
The claim
The US Census Bureau's advance monthly retail sales report released in October 2026 shows a month-over-month change of at least +0.2%.
Reasoning trace
- Cluster tracked retail sales as a key market driver
- Recent trend in retail sales prints has been modestly positive
- Next scheduled release falls within October reporting window
Evidence so far
3 confirming · 0 denying signals · 6 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 14 times since mint (last on 2026-10-11) — 31% at mint → 80% today.
What to watch
- milestone The US Census Bureau publishes the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report for August 2026 on its official website observed
- leading indicator The US Census Bureau publishes the September 2026 advance monthly retail sales report in October 2026
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.