Will OFSI designate a new Russian bank or shadow-fleet entity before 3 December 2026?
Posted 2026-10-04 — 60 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The UK Office of Financial Sanctions Implementation (OFSI) is the government body responsible for enforcing financial sanctions and designating entities that violate them. This forecast concerns whether OFSI will add specific Russian financial institutions or shipping entities to its sanctions list by the specified deadline.
The claim
The UK Office of Financial Sanctions Implementation (OFSI) designates at least one additional Russian bank, financial institution, or shadow-fleet-linked entity before 3 December 2026.
Reasoning trace
- Cluster indicates coordinated Western tightening of Russia financial isolation
- UK has been running a near-monthly cadence of OFSI designations in 2025-2026
- Coordination with EU/G7 packages typically produces parallel UK designations
- A new OFSI notice within the window is a natural extension
Evidence so far
5 confirming · 0 denying signals · 1 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 7 times since mint (last on 2026-10-09) — 78% at mint → 78% today.
What to watch
- leading indicator The UK government announces a new package of sanctions against Russia in an official statement or press release
- leading indicator The European Union publishes a new restrictive measures regulation targeting Russian financial entities in the Official Journal of the European Union
- milestone The UK Treasury publishes a draft statutory instrument or consultation paper proposing amendments to the Russia (Sanctions) (Amendment) Regulations 2022 to add new entities.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.