The UK Office of Financial Sanctions Implementation (OFSI) designates at least one additional Russian bank, financial institution, or shadow-fleet-linked entity before 3 December 2026.
Posted 2026-10-04 — 60 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The claim
The UK Office of Financial Sanctions Implementation (OFSI) designates at least one additional Russian bank, financial institution, or shadow-fleet-linked entity before 3 December 2026.
Reasoning trace
- Cluster indicates coordinated Western tightening of Russia financial isolation
- UK has been running a near-monthly cadence of OFSI designations in 2025-2026
- Coordination with EU/G7 packages typically produces parallel UK designations
- A new OFSI notice within the window is a natural extension
Evidence so far
3 confirming · 0 denying signals · 0 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 2 times since mint (last on 2026-10-04) — 78% at mint → 78% today.
What to watch
- leading indicator The UK government announces a new package of sanctions against Russia in an official statement or press release
- leading indicator The European Union publishes a new restrictive measures regulation targeting Russian financial entities in the Official Journal of the European Union
- milestone The UK Treasury publishes a draft statutory instrument or consultation paper proposing amendments to the Russia (Sanctions) (Amendment) Regulations 2022 to add new entities.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.