The U.S. Department of Commerce will issue preliminary affirmative determinations in the antidumping and countervailing duty investigations concerning spray-foam systems from Thailand by the end of November 2026.
Posted 2026-09-30 — 61 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The claim
The U.S. Department of Commerce will issue preliminary affirmative determinations in the antidumping and countervailing duty investigations concerning spray-foam systems from Thailand by the end of November 2026.
Reasoning trace
- Upstream shock: U.S. Department of Commerce (z=4.5); ICL-IP America exposed via 'uses' edge
Evidence so far
0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 2 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 1 time since mint (last on 2026-09-30) — 70% at mint → 79% today.
What to watch
- precondition The U.S. Department of Commerce publishes a notice of initiation of the antidumping investigation concerning spray-foam systems from Thailand in the Federal Register
- precondition The U.S. Department of Commerce publishes a notice of initiation of the countervailing duty investigation concerning spray-foam systems from Thailand in the Federal Register
- precondition The U.S. Department of Commerce publishes a notice in the Federal Register initiating the countervailing duty investigation of spray-foam systems from Thailand.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.