Will Japan's National Land Agency report a fifth consecutive monthly fall in central Tokyo condo prices in September 2026?
Posted 2026-09-24 — 14 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The National Land Agency of Japan publishes monthly statistics on real estate prices, including for condominiums in major metropolitan areas. These reports track market trends and are used by analysts to assess the health of the Japanese housing sector.
The claim
Japan's National Land Agency will release September 2026 data showing existing condo prices in central Tokyo have fallen for a fifth consecutive month.
Reasoning trace
- Four consecutive months of declining prices established a strong downward trend.
- Persistent overhang of unsold units in the Tokyo market.
- Economic uncertainty and high interest rates suppressing buyer demand.
Evidence so far
0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 3 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 2 times since mint (last on 2026-09-25) — 78% at mint → 81% today.
What to watch
- leading indicator The Japan National Land Agency publishes the preliminary Land Price Survey data for the September 2026 period on its official website.
- leading indicator The National Land Agency publishes the August 2026 Land Price Survey report showing a negative year-over-year price change for existing condos in Central Tokyo.
- milestone The National Land Agency publishes the September 2026 Land Price Survey report.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.