Will DOJ serve a CID on Disney or ABC by 10 December 2026?
Posted 2026-10-11 — 60 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The U.S. Department of Justice is the federal agency responsible for enforcing antitrust laws. A Civil Investigative Demand is a legal tool used to compel the production of documents during an investigation. This question concerns whether regulators will formally request records from media companies regarding broadcast practices.
The claim
By 2026-12-10, the U.S. Department of Justice will have served at least one Civil Investigative Demand (CID) on The Walt Disney Company or ABC in its antitrust investigation into the U.S. television networks' suspension of White House pool coverage.
Reasoning trace
- Base rate: DOJ Antitrust Division investigations into alleged group boycotts ≈ 70% issue civil investigative demands to target parties within 60 days.
- Inside view: the DOJ named the five-network pool arrangement and ABC's agreement not to substitute for CNN, so ABC/Disney is a central target.
- However, the probe may begin with informal requests or be resolved politically, so I set 0.65.
Evidence so far
1 confirming · 0 denying signals · 0 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 2 times since mint (last on 2026-10-12) — 67% at mint → 79% today.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.