Will the US BEA PCE price index report YoY inflation of 2.5% or higher by 27 October 2026?
Posted 2026-10-03 — 24 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) publishes the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, a key measure of inflation used by policymakers. This forecast concerns the specific year-over-year rate reported in the next scheduled release.
The claim
The next US BEA PCE price index release, published by 2026-10-27, reports year-over-year inflation at or above 2.5 percent.
Reasoning trace
- Core question: us_pce_yoy (instance 3)
Evidence so far
7 confirming · 1 denying signals · 3 verified · 1 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 4 times since mint (last on 2026-10-04) — 78% at mint → 80% today.
What to watch
- leading indicator The US Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes the 'Personal Income and Outlays' report for September 2026 on its website or via press release
- milestone The US Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes the advance estimate of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for September 2026.
- milestone The US Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes the Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.