Will the US, Denmark, and Greenland sign a security agreement for US military basing in Greenland before 3 October 2026?
Posted 2026-09-19 — 14 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
Greenland is an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark, while the United States is a major NATO ally. Security agreements between these parties typically address defense cooperation and military access in the Arctic region.
The claim
The United States, Denmark, and Greenland formally sign the security agreement granting permanent US military basing rights in Greenland at the United Nations General Assembly before 3 October 2026.
Reasoning trace
- Explicit announcement by US and Danish officials that signing is scheduled for next week at the U.N.
- High-level political support from Greenland's Prime Minister
- Urgency to formalize the deal following months of annexation threats
Evidence so far
12 confirming · 0 denying signals · 4 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 13 times since mint (last on 2026-09-23) — 76% at mint → 82% today.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.