Will Volodymyr Zelensky sign the extension of martial law and general mobilization in Ukraine by 1 December 2026?
Posted 2026-10-02 — 60 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
Volodymyr Zelensky is the President of Ukraine, who holds executive authority over national security measures. Martial law and general mobilization are legal frameworks used to manage the state of war and military conscription.
The claim
By 2026-12-01, Volodymyr Zelensky will sign into law the extension of martial law and general mobilization in Ukraine.
Reasoning trace
- Base rate: Ukraine has extended martial law every ~90 days since February 2022 ≈ 95%
- The next extension is due around November 2026, and the ongoing war and Russian drone campaign make a lapse extremely unlikely.
- Adjusted to 85% to account for possible procedural delay beyond the window.
Evidence so far
0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 0 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 3 times since mint (last on 2026-10-04) — 80% at mint → 78% today.
What to watch
- milestone The Verkhovna Rada publishes the official text of the draft resolution extending martial law and general mobilization in its legislative registry.
- leading indicator The Verkhovna Rada Speaker announces the specific date for the plenary session where the extension resolution will be voted on.
- precondition The Verkhovna Rada (Ukrainian Parliament) votes to approve the extension of martial law and general mobilization.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.