By 2026-12-01, Volodymyr Zelensky will sign into law the extension of martial law and general mobilization in Ukraine.
Posted 2026-10-02 — 60 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The claim
By 2026-12-01, Volodymyr Zelensky will sign into law the extension of martial law and general mobilization in Ukraine.
Reasoning trace
- Base rate: Ukraine has extended martial law every ~90 days since February 2022 ≈ 95%
- The next extension is due around November 2026, and the ongoing war and Russian drone campaign make a lapse extremely unlikely.
- Adjusted to 85% to account for possible procedural delay beyond the window.
Evidence so far
0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 0 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 1 time since mint (last on 2026-10-02) — 80% at mint → 83% today.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.