Will USDA AMS publish a Federal Register notice approving OMB 0581-0191 by 9 October 2026?
Posted 2026-09-25 — 14 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The USDA Agricultural Marketing Service administers the National Organic Program, which sets standards for organic agricultural products. The Office of Management and Budget reviews federal information collections to ensure they meet statutory requirements before agencies can collect data from the public.
The claim
The USDA Agricultural Marketing Service issues a notice in the Federal Register stating that the National Organic Program information collection (OMB 0581-0191) extension and revision has been approved by the Office of Management and Budget.
Reasoning trace
- Standard procedural outcome for a PRA notice that is already published and moving through OMB review.
- USDA's stated intention to implement the collection, making approval the default path absent major objections.
Evidence so far
0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 3 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 2 times since mint (last on 2026-09-26) — 82% at mint → 79% today.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.