By 2026-11-28, the Federal Reserve will not have issued a final rule implementing the GENIUS Act's prohibition on tying for payment stablecoin issuers.
Posted 2026-09-29 — 60 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The claim
By 2026-11-28, the Federal Reserve will not have issued a final rule implementing the GENIUS Act's prohibition on tying for payment stablecoin issuers.
Reasoning trace
- Signpost: The Federal Reserve publishes a notice of proposed rulemaking (NPRM) for the GENIUS Act tying prohibition in the Federal Register by 2026-11-28.
- The larger development is the formal regulatory implementation of the GENIUS Act, which would reshape stablecoin issuer conduct and market structure.
Evidence so far
0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 2 verified · 4 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 3 times since mint (last on 2026-09-29) — 87% at mint → 83% today.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.