US Strategic Petroleum Reserve is drawn down or the Biden-era emergency release authority is publicly invoked by the Department of Energy before 2026-10-15.
Posted 2026-09-02 — 43 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The claim
US Strategic Petroleum Reserve is drawn down or the Biden-era emergency release authority is publicly invoked by the Department of Energy before 2026-10-15.
Reasoning trace
- Oil shock feeds pump prices ahead of midterms
- White House needs supply-side relief without Fed cuts
- DOE announces SPR draw as visible action
Evidence so far
10 confirming · 0 denying signals · 5 verified · 1 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 24 times since mint (last on 2026-10-01) — 18% at mint → 83% today.
What to watch
- leading indicator EIA weekly petroleum status report shows a decrease in Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventory levels observed
- leading indicator The US Department of Energy publishes a Federal Register notice or official press release detailing the specific volume and duration of the SPR draw authorization
- leading indicator The US Department of Energy publishes a Federal Register notice or official press release explicitly invoking Section 213 of the Energy Policy and Conservation Act
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.