A US federal court issues an injunction or temporary restraining order blocking Trump's attempted removal of at least one Federal Reserve governor before 2026-11-15.
Posted 2026-10-02 — 44 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The claim
A US federal court issues an injunction or temporary restraining order blocking Trump's attempted removal of at least one Federal Reserve governor before 2026-11-15.
Reasoning trace
- Trump formally issues removal order for Fed governor(s)
- Target governor(s) file emergency injunction
- Federal district court grants TRO citing Humphrey's Executor
- Case proceeds on expedited schedule
Evidence so far
0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 0 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 1 time since mint (last on 2026-10-02) — 87% at mint → 79% today.
What to watch
- leading indicator The White House or OMB issues a public statement or executive order announcing the intent to remove a specific Federal Reserve governor
- milestone The Federal Register publishes a notice of proposed rulemaking or executive order regarding the removal of a Federal Reserve governor
- precondition The White House or Office of Management and Budget publishes a formal notice or press release announcing the removal of a specific Federal Reserve governor.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.