Will Pedro Alliana announce a formal cabinet reshuffle or new ministerial appointments by 2026-11-30?
Posted 2026-11-05 — 25 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
Pedro Alliana is a government official with authority over executive appointments. Cabinet reshuffles and ministerial changes are formal actions that alter the composition of a national administration. The question examines whether any such announcement occurs on or before the stated date.
The claim
Pedro Alliana will announce a formal cabinet reshuffle or new ministerial appointments by 2026-11-30.
Reasoning trace
- The Ueno Bank collapse triggers unrest
- Peña resigns
- Congress accepts the resignation
- The vice president is sworn in
Evidence so far
1 confirming · 0 denying signals · 1 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 3 times since mint (last on 2026-11-06) — 68% at mint → 81% today.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.