The European Central Bank will announce a policy rate hike at its monetary policy meeting held on October 29, 2026.
Posted 2026-09-30 — 29 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The claim
The European Central Bank will announce a policy rate hike at its monetary policy meeting held on October 29, 2026.
Reasoning trace
- Soaring natural gas prices due to Hormuz supply crisis
- ECB raises rates twice since June to combat inflation
- ECB announces a further rate hike on October 29, 2026
Evidence so far
2 confirming · 0 denying signals · 1 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 2 times since mint (last on 2026-10-01) — 87% at mint → 78% today.
What to watch
- leading indicator The ECB publishes the minutes of the September 2026 monetary policy meeting indicating a majority of Governing Council members support a further rate hike in October.
- milestone The ECB releases the October 2026 Staff Macroeconomic Projections showing that the median inflation forecast for 2027 exceeds the 2% target.
- leading indicator The ECB publishes the minutes of the September 2026 monetary policy meeting indicating a consensus to continue tightening or a hawkish bias for the next meeting.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.