By November 14, 2026, the CFTC will not initiate a formal enforcement action or ban Polymarket's access to U.S. users.
Posted 2026-09-30 — 45 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The claim
By November 14, 2026, the CFTC will not initiate a formal enforcement action or ban Polymarket's access to U.S. users.
Reasoning trace
- Upstream shock: Federal Reserve (z=4.4); Polymarket exposed via 'uses' edge
Evidence so far
0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 2 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 1 time since mint (last on 2026-09-30) — 80% at mint → 83% today.
What to watch
- leading indicator The CFTC publishes a public statement or press release announcing the initiation of a formal enforcement action against Polymarket
- leading indicator The SEC or DOJ publishes a public statement announcing a formal enforcement action or ban against Polymarket's U.S. operations
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.