By 2026-12-10, Ukraine publicly confirms at least one new glide bomb strike on a Russian oil refinery or fuel storage site that had not been hit in the previous 30 days.
Posted 2026-10-11 — 60 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The claim
By 2026-12-10, Ukraine publicly confirms at least one new glide bomb strike on a Russian oil refinery or fuel storage site that had not been hit in the previous 30 days.
Reasoning trace
- Ukraine's homegrown glide bombs are operational and have been repeatedly used against Russian fuel infrastructure.
- Russian fuel shortages and refinery outages keep these targets strategically valuable for Ukraine.
- Continued development and production of glide bombs supports sustained strike operations.
- Ukrainian military or government sources publicly confirm a strike on a previously unhit refinery or fuel depot.
Evidence so far
3 confirming · 0 denying signals · 2 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 2 times since mint (last on 2026-10-12) — 78% at mint → 84% today.
What to watch
- leading indicator Ukrainian military or government sources publicly confirm a glide bomb strike on a Russian oil refinery or fuel storage site that was not targeted in the preceding 30 days.
- precondition No official Ukrainian military statement or verified independent report identifies the specific refinery or fuel storage site as a target of a Ukrainian glide bomb strike in the 30 days prior to the new confirmation.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.