By 2026-10-28, Andy Burnham will announce a cabinet reshuffle that removes at least three of Keir Starmer's closest allies from senior positions.
Posted 2026-09-28 — 30 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The claim
By 2026-10-28, Andy Burnham will announce a cabinet reshuffle that removes at least three of Keir Starmer's closest allies from senior positions.
Reasoning trace
- Burnham becomes PM after Starmer's resignation
- Burnham seeks to establish his own authority and distance from Starmer's policies
- Burnham announces a cabinet reshuffle removing Starmer loyalists
Evidence so far
72 confirming · 0 denying signals · 5 verified · 1 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 9 times since mint (last on 2026-10-02) — 21% at mint → 86% today.
What to watch
- precondition Keir Starmer publicly announces his resignation as Prime Minister observed
- precondition Keir Starmer formally resigns as Prime Minister or announces his departure from the role observed
- milestone Andy Burnham is confirmed as the new Prime Minister of the United Kingdom observed
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.