Will Brazilian Supreme Court Justice André Mendonça order the public release of Flávio Bolsonaro's bank, tax and phone records by 2026-12-23?
Posted 2026-10-24 — 60 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
André Mendonça is a justice of Brazil's Supreme Federal Court. Flávio Bolsonaro is a Brazilian senator. The question addresses whether a judicial order will be issued for the public disclosure of specified records associated with Bolsonaro, relatives and linked companies by the given date.
The claim
Brazilian Supreme Court Justice André Mendonça will order the public release of Flávio Bolsonaro's bank, tax and phone records, including those of his relatives and linked companies, by 2026-12-23.
Reasoning trace
- Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro signed a TSE agreement to lift secrecy on their bank, tax and phone records
- The release now depends solely on rapporteur André Mendonça's ruling
- Both campaigns requested the measure, so Mendonça is likely to authorize it after the Oct 25 runoff
- The order would make Flávio Bolsonaro's records public before year-end
Evidence so far
0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 1 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 2 times since mint (last on 2026-10-24) — 70% at mint → 75% today.
What to watch
- precondition The TSE runoff election concludes with a certified final result confirming Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as President.
- milestone The TSE formally transmits the case file and the joint request for lifting secrecy to Justice André Mendonça as rapporteur.
- milestone Justice André Mendonça publishes or files the final judicial decision text containing the specific disclosure mandate for relatives and linked companies.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.