Will zero category 4 or stronger hurricanes make landfall in the US before 16 November 2026?
Posted 2026-10-05 — 42 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The National Hurricane Center classifies tropical cyclones by sustained wind speed, with Category 4 storms defined as having winds of 130 to 156 mph. This forecast concerns the frequency of high-intensity tropical cyclones making landfall in the United States during the specified period.
The claim
Zero category 4 or stronger hurricanes make landfall in the United States before 2026-11-16.
Reasoning trace
- Core question: us_major_hurricane (instance 2)
Evidence so far
1 confirming · 0 denying signals · 2 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 2 times since mint (last on 2026-10-08) — 81% at mint → 80% today.
What to watch
- precondition The NHC issues a Hurricane Warning for a system with a forecast maximum sustained wind speed of 130 mph or greater targeting the US East Coast or Gulf Coast
- leading indicator The NHC assigns a Category 4 or 5 rating to an active tropical cyclone in its official advisories
- precondition The NHC issues an official advisory for a tropical cyclone showing maximum sustained winds of 130 mph or greater while the system is still over water and forecast to make US landfall within the prediction window (before 2026-11-16).
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.